Money vs. outcome
Data 2026-10-28 07:31 CDT · v0.8.18
Does the money win?
Outside money behind each Senate candidate — spending for them plus spending against their opponent — set against the certified result, 2020–2024.
Senate races, ≥ $1M outside money
48
2020, 2022 and 2024
Better-funded candidate lost
20 42%
Close to a coin flip
Races ≥ $25M
17 of 31 lost
Better-funded side lost most
Money share vs. margin
r = +0.08
Indistinguishable from zero
The 20 most expensive Senate races
FEC · MIT Election Lab| Race | Winner | Outside money behind winner | Runner-up | Outside money behind runner-up | Better-funded candidate lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH 2024 | Bernie Moreno (R) | $181.5M | Sherrod Brown (D) | $100.2M | No |
| GA 2020 | Jon Ossoff (D) | $94.1M | David A. Perdue (R) | $171.9M | Yes |
| PA 2024 | Dave McCormick (R) | $137.7M | Robert P Casey Jr (D) | $97.5M | No |
| GA 2022 | Raphael Warnock (D) | $120.0M | Herschel Walker (R) | $93.4M | No |
| NC 2020 | Thom Tillis (R) | $100.2M | Cal Cunningham (D) | $103.3M | Yes |
| PA 2022 | John K. Fetterman (D) | $103.0M | Mehmet Oz (R) | $95.3M | No |
| GA 2020 (sp.) | Raphael Warnock (D) | $56.6M | Kelly Loeffler (R) | $108.3M | Yes |
| IA 2020 | Joni Ernst (R) | $74.3M | Theresa Greenfield (D) | $88.8M | Yes |
| MT 2024 | Tim Sheehy (R) | $73.8M | Jon Tester (D) | $74.5M | Yes |
| MI 2024 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $61.5M | Mike Rogers (R) | $73.0M | Yes |
| NV 2022 | Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | $64.7M | Adam Paul Laxalt (R) | $54.6M | No |
| MT 2020 | Steve Daines (R) | $48.2M | Steve Bullock (D) | $58.0M | Yes |
| AZ 2022 | Mark Kelly (D) | $56.0M | Blake Masters (R) | $47.6M | No |
| WI 2022 | Ron Johnson (R) | $60.4M | Mandela Barnes (D) | $42.1M | No |
| ME 2020 | Susan Margaret Collins (R) | $46.0M | Sara I. Gideon (D) | $51.5M | Yes |
| NV 2024 | Jacky S. Rosen (D) | $54.2M | Sam Brown (R) | $41.6M | No |
| WI 2024 | Tammy Baldwin (D) | $45.3M | Eric Hovde (R) | $49.7M | Yes |
| MI 2020 | Gary Peters (D) | $41.1M | John James (R) | $44.3M | Yes |
| NC 2022 | Ted Budd (R) | $61.0M | Cheri Beasley (D) | $21.8M | No |
| AZ 2020 (sp.) | Mark Kelly (D) | $38.3M | Martha McSally (R) | $42.8M | Yes |