Bibliography

Sources

Spending totals are primary, reported figures from the Federal Election Commission. Dark-money figures are independent estimates from OpenSecrets and the Brennan Center for Justice. All amounts are nominal U.S. dollars.

Sources

All spending figures are in nominal U.S. dollars (not inflation-adjusted).

Total cost of federal elections (CSV 03)

Total federal election spending by cycle (candidates + parties + outside groups), federal only, nominal dollars, from OpenSecrets, "Cost of Election." https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/cost-of-election

  • Verified figures: 2016 $6.5B; 2020 $15.1B (OpenSecrets revised, originally ~$14.4B); 2022 $8.9B (federal — the often-cited $16.7B for 2022 includes state races); 2024 $14.8B final (exact $14,804,105,512 = congressional $9,499,667,508 + presidential $5,304,438,004).
  • 2024 revision: OpenSecrets' preliminary 2024 figure was ~$15.9B (still $15.8B in captures through Jul 2025); once final FEC data published it was revised down to $14.8B (visible by the Oct 2025 capture). 2020 ($15.1B) is therefore the most expensive cycle on record in nominal as well as real dollars. Verified 2026-07-07 from the FusionCharts JSON embedded in Wayback captures of the OpenSecrets page (live site Cloudflare-blocks non-browser fetches), e.g. https://web.archive.org/web/20260329212626/https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/cost-of-election?cycle=2020&display=T&infl=N
  • Gotcha: the OpenSecrets page now defaults to inflation-adjusted numbers; nominal view requires display=T&infl=N. Our CSV 03 is nominal. The asterisks on 2012*/2016*/2020*/2024* mark presidential cycles, not preliminary figures.
  • Earlier cycles (2000–2014, 2018) are OpenSecrets' long-published nominal cost-of-election totals: 2000 $3.1B · 2002 $2.2B · 2004 $4.1B · 2006 $2.9B · 2008 $5.3B · 2010 $3.6B · 2012 $6.3B · 2014 $3.8B · 2018 $5.7B.

Independent expenditures & super PACs (CSV 01)

Totals are reported figures from the Federal Election Commission's end-of-cycle statistical summaries. Each row cites the specific summary. "Super PAC" is the FEC category Independent-Expenditure-Only Political Committees; "hybrid PAC" is Committees with Non-Contribution Accounts.

Each figure below was verified against the cited FEC press release (text quoted from the release). "Super PAC" = Independent-Expenditure-Only Political Committees; "hybrid" = Committees with Non-Contribution Accounts. The all-filer IE total also includes party committees, other PACs, and individuals, so super PAC + hybrid do not foot to the total.

Source index: https://www.fec.gov/campaign-finance-data/campaign-finance-statistics/

Dark money (CSV 02)

Two methodologies, not comparable across eras (see the report and data dictionary):

  • 2010–2016 — OpenSecrets: per-cycle spending by organizations that do not disclose their donors, as reported to the FEC. Source: the "Total Outside Spending with No Disclosure of Donors" chart on https://www.opensecrets.org/dark-money/basics and https://www.opensecrets.org/outside-spending/dark-money-groups/summary. Verified to the dollar 2026-07-07 from the chart JSON in archive captures (identical values May 2025 → Jun 2026): 2010 $138,993,579 · 2012 $312,510,013 · 2014 $180,273,061 · 2016 $183,544,183. Two caveats: (1) OpenSecrets restated this series between 2022 and 2024 (the pre-2023 chart showed much higher values, e.g. 2012 $625M — apparent double-counting later corrected); (2) the page's narrative text still carries stale ~2015 boilerplate ("more than $174 million in the 2014 midterms") that does not match the current chart — our previous 2010/2014/2016 values came from that text and have been replaced with the chart series. Brennan's "peaked at around $309 million in 2012" is consistent with the restated $312.5M.
  • 2020 — OpenSecrets: One Billion Dark Money in the 2020 Election Cycle (Mar 2021) — ~$1B, the first application of the expanded method (FEC + undisclosed TV + digital). https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/03/one-billion-dark-money-2020-electioncycle/
  • 2024 — Brennan Center for Justice: Dark Money Hit a Record High of $1.9 Billion in 2024 Federal Races (Anna Massoglia, May 7, 2025), building directly on OpenSecrets' 2020 method and combining FEC-reported spending with undisclosed TV advertising (Wesleyan Media Project / Vivvix CMAG) and digital ad sales (OpenSecrets, Snap, X). Reports $1.9B in 2024 (record, up from the $1B 2020 record) and at least $4.3B cumulatively since Citizens United. Composition (CSV 04): super PAC contributions $1.3B; online $315M; TV $242M; direct FEC $43M. Partisan lean (CSV 06): ~$1.2B Democratic-aligned, ~$664M Republican-aligned. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/dark-money-hit-record-high-19-billion-2024-federal-races

Inflation adjustment (CSV 05)

Real 2024-dollar figures use the BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, all items, 1982–84=100, annual averages. Conversion factor = CPI-U(2024) / CPI-U(cycle year). CPI-U 2024 annual average = 313.689 (computed from BLS monthly data; the 2016/2018/2020/2022 averages were verified the same way and match BLS published values). https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ · https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm

Background

Outside money vs. election outcome (CSV 07)

Money — FEC bulk independent expenditures. https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2020/independent_expenditure_2020.csv, https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2022/independent_expenditure_2022.csv, https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2024/independent_expenditure_2024.csv (downloaded 2026-07-09). General-election rows only; amended filings superseded via prev_file_num; junk filings excluded by a documented ≥$100M rule. See data_dictionary.md for the full methodology.

The OpenFEC REST API's schedules/schedule_e/by_candidate endpoint was deliberately not used: it cannot separate primary from general spending, and its totals diverge from the bulk files (it preserves the Biden→Harris candidate split where the bulk files re-designate).

Results — certified sources.

FEC candidate IDs for every candidate were verified against the FEC bulk candidate master files (cn20, cn22, cn24), not guessed. One candidate (Preston Love Jr., Nebraska 2020, a write-in with no registered committee) has no FEC ID.